Finance is a risky thing when the DJI is flirting with 12,000 points – but it seems that when it refuses to go below 12K, happy times can still come in small amounts. Last month, we experimented with a one-month trial Fantasy Portfolio that drew some views. Here’s the post. We didn’t make a killing. In a BEAR market, who needs to? You just don’t want to lose your shirt and have to climb a tall building like King Kong just to jump off and Widow the wife who challenged you in the first place. Anyhow….

Because I missed this by FOUR days, we have to examine how much that factored in. Today’s Tuesday, the day after President’s Day; since we forgot to check this on Friday when the markets were open, this really is the first day we have to make decisions based on performance. Remember, the goal was simply to NOT LOSE money; Information Ninjas don’t have to kill each and every time.

Symbol: 15JAN08 (bought) – 15FEB08 (Friday) – 19FEB08 (Today)
AM: $19.33 – $20.98 – $20.39
WFC: $28.04 – $30.50 – $29.86
NOK: $34.96 – $36.83 – $36.07
WM: $14.63 – $17.44 – $16.59

Crap. A day makes a difference; ain’t that a bitch? Gain Friday:Gain Today = DIFFERENCE (assuming a hundred shares).

1.65:$1.06 = -$59 bucks for a hundred shares
2.46:$1.82 = -$64
1.87:$1.11 = -$76
2.81”$1.96 = -$85

Our profit on Friday for one month of patience in an UGLY market would have been: $879

Our profit for selling a market-day late is: $595. Let that be a lesson fellow-ninja. Today, the Dow Jones closed at 12,337.22 and a month ago on 15JAN08, the Dow Jones closed at 12,501.11 So the conclusion is actually not too shabby:

In a market that dropped 1.013%, we gained almost 6% Could’ve been about 9% if I was awake on Friday. Such is life.

DINARIUS Bryan's old Digital Interest blog